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***New deterministic model for the control of epidemic
New deterministic model for the control of epidemic
Damascus University _FMEE fattish.i@list.ru
مؤلفون / Authors
We present in this paper the development of the deterministic models: SIR and SEIRD by increasing the number of variables to six (S, E, I, D, R, A) and forming a new ODEs that describes the epidemic with a new mathematical model SEIDRA that monitors the various stages of the epidemic and describes its movement and behavior in the study population, taking into account the above: Studying the change in the movement of deaths, disease carriers and infected people as a result of people moving from one area to the study population area.
SIR, SEIRD, modeling, epidemiology, differential equations
The long history of epidemics in human societies dates back to ancient times. Many of them were recorded in prehistoric periods and through various stages, and the matter is not limited to what we have experienced in this period of time related to the emergence of epidemics such as the Covid19 and Ebola ..., but rather that has always been associated with human activity throughout the ages. The interest of medicine in how to control these epidemics was to mobilize the rest of the sciences to contribute to preserving human lives, and mathematics and mathematicians had an important role in that. Daniel Bernoulli (17th century) had the first serious participation in the work on characterizing such cases, and many mathematicians followed him later, up to the present day, where many statistical, probabilistic, and analytical models were established, and many computer models were built to deal with these issues in service of the civilized path in evolution, progress and the preservation of human life. This has emerged during the Covid19 pandemic through the great works and researches that accompanied the new epidemic. The spread of an epidemic disease depends on both the amount of contact between individuals and the possibility of an infected person transmitting the disease to another person
General description of the proposed model
Fig(1): Scheme of SEIDRA model.
are parameters of SEIDRA model are defined in Table (1).
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